Bulls to Target $0.55 on Vasil Hard Fork News

Key Insights:

  • It was a bullish Friday session, with a broad-based crypto rally supporting an ADA return to $0.50.
  • While finding support, ADA trailed the top ten crypto front runners.
  • Technical indicators are bullish, with ADA sitting above the 200-day and bullish crosses bringing $0.55 into play.

On Friday, ADA rallied by 5.01%. Following a flat session on Thursday, ADA ended the day at $0.503.

Bullish throughout the Friday session, ADA rallied from an early low of $0.479 to a mid-day high of $0.505. ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.487 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.495.

However, falling short of the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $0.515, ADA briefly fell back to sub-$0.49 before wrapping up the day at $0.503.

While finding support from the broader crypto market, Vasil hard fork updates were also ADA price positive.

Input Output HK Hard Fork Updates Show a Pickup in Exchange Upgrades

On Friday, there were no Input Output HK updates on social media to provide ADA with direction. Input Output HK announced that it would pause all social media comments over the next few days in respect of Her Majesty the Queen.

However, Vasil hard fork updates on the IOHK Support page were ADA price positive.

As of September 9, updates on the ADA Hard Fork Mass Indicators are as follows:

  • Fifteen exchanges are hard fork ready, up from 14 as of September 8.
  • Hard fork ready exchanges include AAX, AscendEX (Bitmax), Binance, Bitkub, Bitmart, Bitrue, BKEX, Btc Turk, Dex-Trade, Gate.io, Litebit.eu, MEXC, NDAX, OKex, and Whitebit.
  • Twenty-seven exchanges are in progress, down by one from the previous day, with Coinbase and Kraken still reporting upgrades in progress.

From the top 12 exchanges by liquidity:

  • Six exchanges are hard fork ready: AAX, Binance, Bittrue, BKEX, MEXC, and WhiteBit, with four in progress, including Coinbase, HitBTC, Upbit, and XT.com.
  • However, two exchanges have yet to start the upgrade process: ChangellyPro and ZB.com.

While the number of exchanges being hard fork ready and the number in progress have risen, Coinbase has yet to complete the upgrade process.

Following the successful upgrade of 75% of SPO nodes to v1.35.3, the crypto market is tracking two critical mass indicators, these being,

  • Approximately 25 exchanges upgrade (representing c.80% of ADA liquidity).
  • Top 10 Dapps by TVL confirm they’ve upgraded to 1.35.3 on Pre-Production & are ready for mainnet.

Overnight, PoolTool showed that 84% of Cardano SPO nodes have upgraded to v1.35.3. While upgrade momentum has stalled, nodes achieved the 75% threshold last week.

ADA Price Action

This morning, ADA was up 3.18% to $0.519. A mixed start to the day saw ADA fall to an early low of $0.495 before rising to a high of $0.520.

ADA broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.512.

ADAUSD 100922 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

ADA needs to hold above R1 and the $0.496 pivot to retarget the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.522. With news of Binance completing the Vasil hard fork upgrade, investors will be looking for Coinbase to complete the process to support another bullish session.

In the case of an extended crypto rally, ADA could test the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $0.548 and resistance at $0.550. However, ADA would also need the support of the broader market for an extended rally.

A fall through R1 and the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.486 into play. However, barring an extended sell-off, ADA should avoid sub-$0.480 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.470. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.444.

ADAUSD 100922 Hourly Chart

This morning, the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.

ADA sat above the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.482. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

Following Friday’s bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA, a bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 200-day EMA would support a run at $0.550. However, an ADA fall through the S1 ($0.486) would bring the 200-day EMA ($0.482) into view.

ADAUSD 100922 4-Hourly Chart