Macro Guru Raoul Pal Says There’s a 70% Chance Bitcoin and Ethereum Hit This ‘Shoo-In’ Price

Real Vision CEO and macro investor Raoul Pal is predicting that Bitcoin could more than triple in value from the current price, while Ethereum could nearly quadruple.

Pal tells his 695,100 Twitters followers that there’s more than a 70% probability of Bitcoin hitting $200,000 and Ethereum reaching $20,000.


“This is not a certainty. It is a probabilistic outcome. For me, $20,000 ETH and $200k BTC is a shoo in (70% + chance).

What outperforms and how this plays out is anyone’s guess…”

Pal says that currently, Bitcoin is replicating the price behavior it displayed in 2013.

“BTC continues to follow 2013 very well.”

Source: RaoulGM/Twitter

The Real Vision founder also says that there’s a “decent chance” that the current Bitcoin bull cycle could play out for a longer period than previous ones.

“I think there is a decent chance (not a certainty) that this BTC cycle extends longer in time and higher in price…”

Source: RaoulGM/Twitter

The macro guru adds that Ethereum could potentially even reach $40,000 by the end of the first or second quarter of 2022 if it follows the price behavior Bitcoin exhibited during the 2017 bull run.

“And ETH…bigger move…$40,000 by March/June would only be one standard deviation overbought versus trend.”

Source: RaoulGM/Twitter

When asked whether Ethereum could drop by 90%, similar to what happened in 2018 after the bull run, Pal answers in the negative.

“No. It will go down much less, IMHO (in my humble opinion)”.

Bitcoin is trading at $63,600 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko, while Ethereum is exchanging hands at $4,140.

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Featured Image: Shutterstock/intueri

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